Matti Schmid holds the lead, but Nick Dunlap’s double bogey tells the real story of Round 2.

German golfer Matti Schmid is making winning look easy in Mexico. He fired a bogey-free 63 on Friday, highlighted by a 30-foot eagle putt with six feet of break that somehow found the bottom of the cup. The 27-year-old Louisville product played a six-hole stretch in 6-under, the kind of run that wins tournaments. At 17-under through 36 holes at El Cardonal, Schmid isn’t just leading—he’s controlling his own destiny. “I kept life pretty stress-free out there today,” Schmid said, which is exactly what you want to hear from someone chasing a spot in next year’s Signature Events.

The Unraveling Behind Him

While Schmid cruised, Nick Dunlap was living a nightmare in real-time. After tying the course record with a 61 on Thursday, Dunlap opened Friday with three straight birdies, racing to 30 on the front nine. He stood one shot ahead of Schmid with momentum on his side and confidence surging through his game. Then came the seventh hole—a par-4 that should’ve been routine—and everything changed. One wild 3-wood into the native area. One penalty. One double bogey. Suddenly, Dunlap’s commanding position evaporated, and Schmid’s lead became reality.

Dunlap’s Redemption Arc Hits a Speed Bump

Here’s what makes Dunlap’s double bogey so devastating: this was supposed to be his comeback story. The two-time tour winner ranks dead last—literally last—in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this season, having lost 97 strokes to the field. He shot 90 at the Masters this year and spent a night at his Augusta rental rage-hitting balls into the woods. He changed coaches, rebuilt his swing, and showed up in Mexico hitting 27 of 28 fairways through two rounds. Then one bad swing on his 16th hole reminded everyone—including himself—that the struggle isn’t over. “I’m allowed to make a bad swing here and there,” Dunlap said, trying to convince himself as much as anyone listening.

The FedExCup Fall Pressure Cooker

This tournament matters beyond trophy presentations and winner’s checks. With only three events remaining in the FedExCup Fall, players are fighting for survival. The top 100—not 125 anymore—get full cards for next season. Schmid came in at No. 70, comfortable but hunting for the top 60 to earn Signature Event starts. Dunlap’s exempt for 2026 thanks to last year’s victories, but Sami Valimaki, tied with Dunlap at 16-under, entered the week at No. 103. Every birdie, every bogey, every moment of mental fortitude carries career-altering weight.

What the Weekend Holds

Schmid leads by one entering the weekend, with Dunlap and Valimaki breathing down his neck at 16-under. Chad Ramey sits at 15-under, and Ben Griffin lurks at 14-under. The leaderboard is packed, the course is gettable, and the pressure is mounting. The question isn’t whether Schmid can hold the lead—it’s whether Dunlap can silence the doubt that crept back in on the seventh hole. Sometimes one swing is all it takes to change a tournament. Sometimes it changes a career.